Less Fruit, More Junk: The Troubling Diet Trends Predicted for 2030

25 March 2025

Less Fruit, More Junk: The Troubling Diet Trends Predicted for 2030

Australia’s dietary habits are heading in the wrong direction, with new research predicting a decline in fruit consumption and a surge in discretionary food intake by 2030. While national health targets aim to improve diet quality and reduce preventable disease, the latest analysis suggests that without major intervention, Australians will be eating fewer fruits and vegetables—and even more unhealthy, processed foods—over the next decade.

The study, published in Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health, modelled self-reported dietary intake data from over 275,000 Australian adults between 2015 and 2023, projecting future trends against the National Preventive Health Strategy’s dietary targets for 2030. The findings paint a concerning picture: fruit intake is expected to drop by nearly 10%, discretionary food intake is set to rise by over 18%, and vegetable consumption is predicted to remain stagnant—well below recommended levels.

These projections directly contradict Australia’s public health goals. The National Preventive Health Strategy sets ambitious targets, including increasing average daily fruit intake to two servings, vegetable intake to five servings, and cutting discretionary food intake to below 20% of total energy consumption. Yet, current data suggests that Australians are moving further away from these goals rather than closer to them.

The consumption of discretionary foods—highly processed, nutrient-poor products such as sugary snacks, fast food, and soft drinks—is already alarmingly high, making up around 35% of total energy intake. Instead of declining, as health experts recommend, this figure is expected to grow even further. This shift is particularly concerning given the strong link between poor diet quality and rising rates of obesity, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular disease.

The study also found that dietary habits are shifting differently across demographics. While fruit and vegetable intake is expected to decline across most age groups, one exception is young adults aged 18 to 30, who are projected to increase their fruit intake by 11% and vegetable intake by 13%. However, this improvement is overshadowed by a 21% predicted rise in discretionary food consumption within the same age group.

The findings align with broader trends in Australian food purchasing habits. Apparent consumption data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows a 7.9% drop in fruit purchases and an 11% decline in legume and pulse purchases over the past five years, while snack food purchases have jumped by 10%. Rising costs of fresh produce, aggressive marketing of ultra-processed foods, and increasing reliance on convenience meals all contribute to these concerning dietary shifts.

Previous public health initiatives, such as the Go for 2 & 5 campaign, have had some success in raising awareness of healthy eating. However, lasting improvements in dietary habits remain elusive. While some countries have introduced policies such as sugar taxes to reduce discretionary food consumption, Australia has yet to implement similar large-scale interventions.

If Australia is to reverse these trends and meet its 2030 preventive health targets, stronger policy action will be needed—whether through better food labelling, restrictions on junk food advertising, or financial incentives to make fresh produce more affordable. Without intervention, the health consequences of poor diet are set to grow, placing even greater pressure on an already stretched healthcare system.